The interesting numbers from this poll I found was Gallup's measurement of active versus in-active (Gallup refers to them as "lapsed Mormons) members. Among church-going members, 65% are conservative, 29% moderate, and 5% liberal. Among "lapsed members" the numbers flux greatly, 36% conservative, 41% moderate, and 20% liberal, very similar to all other Americans regardless of religion. I find it very intriguing that such is the case. I am a firm believer that you can be a church-going Mormon and extremely liberal politically (I know this may surprise or disgust many of you). For me, that cannot be the case but that is just the decision I've made.
So, if Mormons are so conservative what impact do we have in American politics and will we have increased importance in the future? Currently, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat from Nevada, is the most powerful Mormon in the United States government. [Note: I know his "power" doesn't really count.] There are also an additional 11 members of the House and 4 of the Senate who are Mormon. Considering we only make up 1.7% of the US eligible voting population that is pretty good. Practically all of the congressmen, however, hail from the western half of the country, where the Mormon population is the greatest.
Can a Mormon ever be voted President of the United States, a national ballot? Recently in 2000 Senator Orrin Hatch tried but that puttered then quickly died. Former Governor Mitt Romney also tried in 2008 and came closer than any other Mormon in history, but in the end he was defeated. Did he lose because of his politics or did he lose because of his religion? Or was it a combination of the two? Many of us would like to believe it was his politics, but I'm afraid it was more his religion. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints got a lot more media requests during Romney's presidential campaign than any other event including the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.
Elder Ballard recently addressed one event during Romney's campaign while speaking at BYU-Idaho:
"'You remember Mr. Huckabee who among other things said that Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil were brothers? Remember that? It went all over the media. Well, they are,' Ballard exclaimed to a laughing student body. 'But they don't understand that, because they don't have the Restoration. They don't understand that spiritual relationship...'"
So considering our small proportion of the US population and the lack of understanding among people not of our faith, I am afraid it going to be a long while, if ever, before a Mormon is elected president. I don't think it really matters whether in the future we remain reliably conservative or become more politically diverse. Our faith must be more understood before people are confident enough to vote for a Mormon.
[Below is a funny video from during the Romney campaign that exemplifies my point.]