Defeating the Deficit

I think everyone by now knows this country has got a serious issue on its hands: an ever-exploding federal deficit. Everyone knows that you don't spend money you don't have unless you've got a plan to get out of it. (Yes, my own deficit soon will be exploding with law school tuition payments to make.) The federal deficit now stands at $12.8 trillion dollars! With the estimated population of the United States at 308.1 million that is about $41,000 debt per United States citizen. Our debt is excessive. Now there will always be economists who debate whether or not that is a bad thing for growth, but fiscally we're experiencing a disease that will continue to eat away at us until it's too late.

Today the director of the Congressional Budget Office said, "US fiscal policy is unsustainable, and unsustainable to an extent that it can't be solved through minor changes." Yesterday Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, expressed similar concerns when he said, "Unless we as a nation demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal responsibility, in the longer run we will have neither financial stability or healthy economic growth." The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to go from 63% to 90% by 2020!! 90% of our GDP! Imagine a debt that big. Greece is currently experiencing a fiscal crisis with a similar debt ratio. Are we going to avoid the same course?

Now, we know that a sudden, dramatic stop to controlling the deficit would be economically devastating, but don't expect that to happen anyway. Our leaders in Washington love spending money and bringing home the bacon for their constituents so they can win reelection. They also just need quick spending fixes to solve the immediate economic needs so the political environment is better the next time they run for election. Serious and thorough changes need to be made if we're going to tackle the deficit.

One idea floating out there is to institute a VAT tax. Now, for those that have never been to Europe this might not stir any fear in your souls but it definitely does mine. The VAT, or Values Added Tax, is a tax on most all products and services that averages about 20%! Everything you purchased would cost 20% more and your purchasing power on your savings would be now 20% less. Washington would be seeing green but the everyday American would be suffering. Instituting a VAT tax would also move our country into slow-growth economics of Europe. Let America stay America!

To solve our deficit problem lets get unnecessary and corrupt spending under control before we start taxing the heck out of every American citizen. I'm afraid if we don't get that under control then to everyone's detriment higher taxes are definitely on the horizon. Let's stay the land of the free.

Mormons in American Politics

An interesting Gallup poll was recently released showing members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints as the most conservative group in the United States. You can take a look for yourself but the survey was pretty extensive with high statistical confidence. According to the poll, 59% are conservative, 31% moderate, and 8% liberal. The next most conservative religious group is protestants who are 46% conservative, 37% moderate, and 16% liberal. So as a group, Mormons are much more conservative. Even when taking the ultra-conservative Utah into consideration, there is no significant difference. The percentage of Mormons who are conservative in Utah (60%) and outside Utah (58%) is practically the same. Surprising? For most of us probably not.

The interesting numbers from this poll I found was Gallup's measurement of active versus in-active (Gallup refers to them as "lapsed Mormons) members. Among church-going members, 65% are conservative, 29% moderate, and 5% liberal. Among "lapsed members" the numbers flux greatly, 36% conservative, 41% moderate, and 20% liberal, very similar to all other Americans regardless of religion. I find it very intriguing that such is the case. I am a firm believer that you can be a church-going Mormon and extremely liberal politically (I know this may surprise or disgust many of you). For me, that cannot be the case but that is just the decision I've made.

So, if Mormons are so conservative what impact do we have in American politics and will we have increased importance in the future? Currently, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat from Nevada, is the most powerful Mormon in the United States government. [Note: I know his "power" doesn't really count.] There are also an additional 11 members of the House and 4 of the Senate who are Mormon. Considering we only make up 1.7% of the US eligible voting population that is pretty good. Practically all of the congressmen, however, hail from the western half of the country, where the Mormon population is the greatest.

Can a Mormon ever be voted President of the United States, a national ballot? Recently in 2000 Senator Orrin Hatch tried but that puttered then quickly died. Former Governor Mitt Romney also tried in 2008 and came closer than any other Mormon in history, but in the end he was defeated. Did he lose because of his politics or did he lose because of his religion? Or was it a combination of the two? Many of us would like to believe it was his politics, but I'm afraid it was more his religion. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints got a lot more media requests during Romney's presidential campaign than any other event including the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City.

Elder Ballard recently addressed one event during Romney's campaign while speaking at BYU-Idaho:

"'You remember Mr. Huckabee who among other things said that Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil were brothers? Remember that? It went all over the media. Well, they are,' Ballard exclaimed to a laughing student body. 'But they don't understand that, because they don't have the Restoration. They don't understand that spiritual relationship...'"

So considering our small proportion of the US population and the lack of understanding among people not of our faith, I am afraid it going to be a long while, if ever, before a Mormon is elected president. I don't think it really matters whether in the future we remain reliably conservative or become more politically diverse. Our faith must be more understood before people are confident enough to vote for a Mormon.

[Below is a funny video from during the Romney campaign that exemplifies my point.]

We the People?

I usually avoid commenting on the day's political bickering but this subject seems to be more far-reaching. Currently the healthcare bills passed by the Senate and the House back in December are in reconciliation. The Senate Majority Leader and Speaker of the House and other congressional leaders get together and determine how they are going to combine the two health bills. Once they've combined the two to their heart's content they send the bill to the House and then the Senate for a vote. Once it passes in both chambers the bill goes to the president to be signed. So in the bill's current stage no votes are taken and no amendments are given but the end result of the bill is in great flux. Given this fact, who should have access to the proceedings?

While on the campaign trail candidate Obama promised to "broadcast heathcare negotiations on CSPAN so the American people can see what the choices are." Well, clearly he isn't doing that. That is at least one campaign promise down the drain. Now, don't get me wrong, this isn't a partisan criticism, Republican politicians do it all the time too. Unfortunately, it is something we've all just come to expect. But the situation does beg the question, how transparent should government be?

Showing the healthcare negotiations on CPAN would definitely slow the process down as lobbyists and other organizations try to work their influence. Keeping the negotiations behind closed doors allows Reid and Pelosi the opportunity to do their work without interruption. But doesn't overhauling 1/5 of our nation's economy at least merit showing the public what is going on? The taxpayers are going to pay for it, shouldn't they be allowed to at least know what they're going to be paying for as the bill develops?

Now this brings me to the bigger issue. How responsive should our representatives be to the people they represent? Should a congressman always vote as he believes his constituents would want? Should a president broadcast more of the meetings and other negotiations that form our laws? I recognize there needs to be a balance, but I believe in more transparency and not less. Our nation has developed to a point where we have career politicians who really don't have much of an idea what is going on in main street America. We seem to be represented by an elite class of individuals who don't represent but rather dictate. Now I recognize that it isn't completely every politicians fault. Our election finance laws and other regulations have created the beast over the years. I am afraid though that when the framers of the Constitution changed the wording of the preamble from "we the undersigned representatives" to "we the people" they actually understood where the power lies. In the hands of the people. Today, I'm afraid those in government have forgotten that.

Merry Christmas...from Congress to your Home

Right now in Congress there a lot of senators and staff members running around in the capitol's halls. Usually the busy-ness of the holidays results from last minute gift shopping. Well, I hate to break it to you, but this year Congress is trying to get you a healthcare bill by Christmas Day. Yes, that's right. If all goes as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid wishes, the Senate will be voting on the Healthcare bill at 7pm on Christmas Eve. I'm afraid however that this bill definitely won't be one of your favorite gifts this year. Let's see if I can explain.

A lot of people recognize that Healthcare in our nation needs some kind of face lift. In the United States, 15% of the population is uninsured and more money per person is spent on healthcare costs in the United States than any other country. In addition, United States healthcare spending is currently at 16% of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP), second behind only East Timor (anyone know where that is?). The graph below compares our spending with other post-industrial developed countries. Basically, we've got issues.



So how do we control costs while covering more Americans? Much of the debate has resolved around the public option. What is a public option? A government-run healthcare option that competes with private plans. Do we really want the government running our healthcare? They already waste our taxpayer dollars, why give them more? Considering its record with Medicaid and Medicare, I don't think so. Greg Mankiw, a prominent economist and the author of my macro-economics textbook, explains the following about the public option:

"Consumer choice and honest competition are indeed the foundation of a successful market system, but they are usually achieved without a public provider. We don’t need government-run grocery stores or government-run gas stations to ensure that Americans can buy food and fuel at reasonable prices.

Similarly, a public health insurance plan would enjoy the presumption of a government backstop. Such explicit or implicit subsidies would prevent a public plan from providing honest competition for private suppliers of health insurance. Instead, the public plan would likely undercut private firms and get an undue share of the market."

In short, taxpayer supported government-run healthcare would eventually lead to a single-payer system which means less choices and likely more expensive and higher overall spending. But I think my 13-year-old brother-in-law said it best:

Bob (name changed): Do I have to sweep the floor after you cut my hair? Bob's mother: Yes, it's your hair. Bob: Sounds like Obama's healthcare plan. We don't want it but have to pay it for it anyway.

So how do you keep costs down while covering more people? Though I am no healthcare erudite, it seems to me that we want competition among private insurers while providing light regulation to maintain a safety-net for those needing help and preventing excessive pharmaceutical gorging.

Let's leave healthcare to the people by giving them the freedom to choose and to reap the consequences of their choices. Let's keep this country the land of the free...

Why start a blog now?

Welcome everyone to my new political blog. I hope this blog will give you an opportunity to better understand the political happenings in our nation and the consequences of those decisions. Likewise, if you feel inspired to get involved in some way then I encourage you to do so. What this world needs now more than ever is good people who will defend the principles they hold dear. Edmund Burke, an ancient conservative English philosopher, is attributed to having said that "all that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing." I believe that definitely applies to us as citizens of our communities, nations, and the world. Let us do our part, no matter how small it may be, in improving this world and leaving it a better place than when we entered it. I tip my hat in particular to... mothers who actually take time and effort to teach and love our nation's children...fathers who actually father their children and teach them principles of hard work and discipline...individuals who are honest in their dealings and inspire others to do the same...families who struggle with life's many challenges yet continue to fight on...and many others.

We live in a unique time when for better or worse there is change in the air. The U.S. Congress is currently debating overhauling our nation's healthcare. Do we really want government running our healthcare? We have been fighting an elusive and dangerous enemy in Afghanistan for the past 8 years. What do we do now? Our national debt continues to grow to astronomical levels as tax and spend congressional representatives ignore any sense of fiscal responsibility. Is there any way to turn it around? Issues like these are defining our times and, for better or worse, affecting generations yet unborn.

As I blog and analyze different issues by providing my personal reaction to different events, I hope you the readers will provide comments and reactions to my postings whether you agree or disagree. Civil discourse and debate I believe makes us more educated and thus better citizens. Yes, I consider myself a conservative, but my opinions continue to be refined. While I have personally participated in politics thus far many times through the Republican party, I consider the party more a vehicle for social change than a box in which my opinions must conform. So I invite people of all political and social persuasions to join me in discussing the issues and improving this nation we all love.

Francis Scott Key, while aboard a British flagship during the war of 1812 penned the immortal words, "the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave o'er the land of the free and the home of the brave." Are we going to keep it that way? Join me on this journey...